The ongoing debate between short-term and long-term trading strategies in the futures market remains a significant topic of discussion among investors. While the vast majority of retail traders tend to lean towards short-term trading, claiming its potential for quick gains, a closer examination of the outcomes indicates a different narrative. Data consistently suggests that long-term investors are the ones who ultimately come out ahead, while many short-term traders often find themselves facing greater losses over time. This raises important questions—how many proficient short-term traders really exist in the market?

The typical understanding of short-term trading among ordinary investors often revolves around making multiple trades within a single day. However, true short-term trading is not simply defined by the number of trades executed within a day. In fact, frequent intraday traders might be classified as ultra-short-term traders, and when the volume of trading escalates, it morphs into high-frequency trading. Generally, effective short-term trading operates on shorter candlestick timeframes, with intervals like 5-minute, 15-minute, 30-minute, and even hourly charts being popular among traders aiming for quick profits.

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Platforms like QiHe Network are providing special offers for account openings, including transaction fees that only require a minimal 1-point on top of the exchange fees, making it more accessible for traders. Moreover, traders that meet certain criteria will receive additional free training that enhances their trading skills while reducing overall costs. This combination of low fees and educational support is particularly attractive to less experienced investors.

Contrastingly, the definition of long-term trading can vary. Many retail investors assume long-term trading refers to holding positions for a week or more, perhaps for ten to fifteen days. However, in a broader sense, long-term positions can span a month, a quarter, half a year, or even a year or more. The reality is that few ordinary investors hold their positions for an extended period, let alone for periods exceeding several months. Long-term trading typically utilizes daily, weekly, or monthly charts to make decisions.

Intraday trading, while potentially profitable, can prove to be incredibly challenging, testing traders' sensitivity to market movements and their execution abilities. Objectively speaking, around 90% of traders lack a proper sensitivity to market trends. It often takes a substantial market movement for them to recognize opportunities. When they finally see a chance, they may find themselves among the last to take action. Many traders also grapple with poor execution, often influenced by innate greed and desire—wanting to earn more after a win or seeking to make up for losses which can be an instinctual response.

There's a common misconception that intraday trading is an easy path to quick wealth. Some traders visualize themselves succeeding with a meager $10,000 by making consistent returns of $500 daily, which gives a false sense of security. While it might be possible to achieve this, maintaining strict discipline in adhering to such a plan is crucial. If a trader is capable of fully restraining themselves from the urge to chase after more profits once their goal is met, or to recover losses on the same day, then it might be worth exploring intraday trading.

On the other end of the spectrum, long-term trading aligns more closely with those possessing significant capital. For example, a trader with several million in their account can better withstand market volatility. Utilizing a hypothetical scenario with rebar futures—if a trader enters a long position at 3300 and places a stop loss at the lower boundary of the uptrend channel at 3100, they incur a 2000 yuan loss for 1 contract and 20,000 yuan for 10 contracts. Such risks are manageable for a trader with a substantial account but might be devastating for someone with only a few thousand yuan to invest.

In summary, determining the appropriate trading period is one of the critical foundations of successful trading. Most traders are better suited for mid-to-short-term swing trading where they can maximize profits while maintaining lower stop losses. Each trader must establish their trading style and avoid frequent changes that could lead to confusion and inconsistent results.

The saying goes, "Doesn't matter if it's a black cat or a white cat, as long as it catches mice, it's a good cat." A friend of mine exemplifies this; he limits himself to targeting just 50 points daily, irrespective of profit or loss. Whether winning or losing, he sticks to this rule and spends his afternoons leisurely after trading in the morning.

Conversely, many top investors who consistently earn profits typically engage in long-term positions. A notable example is Lin Guangmao, known as the "Soup Wildman." He turned an initial investment of 28,000 yuan into 150,000 yuan in just one month during a cotton market rally, eventually amassing 6 million yuan in six months. His journey didn't stop there; he subsequently turned that amount into 1.3 billion yuan over a year, and by shorting the market, he profited an astounding 700 million yuan. His story showcases a sensational leap from 28,000 yuan to an incredible 2 billion yuan.

What if we can't replicate such legendary successes? The key is to acknowledge one’s own strengths and weaknesses when determining whether to engage in intraday or long-term trading. In the complex world of futures trading, profitability fundamentally boils down to two strategies—having a high win rate or being able to detect long-term trends. For traders who fit the former description, intraday trading can yield profits. In contrast, those who resonate more with the latter approach may find long-term trading more beneficial.

Ultimately, knowledge comes from experience. Each individual must experiment with these strategies to distill insights from their past actions, understanding what best suits them rather than purely chasing success paths that might not work for everyone. Remember, not every success story is easily replicable.